The Variance Prize for papers published in its 15th volume (2022) has been awarded to Drake Landry and Steven Martin for their paper “Policy-Level Unreported Frequency Model for Pure IBNR Estimation.”
Peng Shi, ACAS, Ph.D., co-editor of Variance, chaired the judges panel, and Brian Fannin, ACAS, CSPA, research actuary at the CAS, co-chaired.
“The selection committee recognized the paper for its exceptional originality, scientific contribution and relevance to the practice of actuarial science,” said Shi. “At the heart of the paper is an individual reserving method that enables actuaries to estimate the pure IBNR reserves and to quantify the associated uncertainty.”
He noted that the method represents a significant advancement in the reserving practice in that it leverages claim- and policy-level information in reserves prediction. “What makes this paper truly remarkable is the authors’ ability to integrate cutting-edge methodology with practical implementation. They provide a detailed methodology and a worked example that demonstrates its effectiveness in practice.”
“This practical application of their method makes it a valuable tool for actuaries working in the insurance industry,” said Roger Hayne, editor in chief of Variance. “Overall, the paper represents a noteworthy contribution to actuarial science by providing a novel approach to reserving that addresses a critical challenge faced by insurers, as well as a practical solution that can be easily implemented in real-world settings.”
The Variance Prize honors original thinking and research in property-casualty actuarial science and is awarded to the author or authors of the best paper published in each volume year. To be eligible, a paper must show original research and the solution of advanced insurance problems.
Drake Landry, FCAS, is an actuary STP 1 at Liberty Mutual Insurance, where he has held roles in product management, capital modeling and reserving. He graduated from Boston University with a B.A. in mathematics in 2016.
Steven Martin, FCAS, is an actuary manager at Liberty Mutual Insurance, where he’s held roles in internal reinsurance, ERM and capital management. Prior to Liberty Mutual he worked in pricing roles at AIG and GEICO. He graduated from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County in 2008 with a B.A. in Mathematics and a B.S. in Computer Science.
The winning paper is published in volume 15, issue 1 of Variance and is available online.