The CAS Monograph Committee is looking for monographs on predictive modeling of individual claims in P&C insurance. The call’s purpose is to develop literature that emphasizes the educational and professional needs of actuaries to improve the estimation of ultimate losses in P&C actuarial practice and to generate publicly available models and methods.
This call covers both modern pricing and reserving methods, but it should be limited to typical actuarial functions. Models may include both indemnity and expenses, as well as correlations between the two.
Monographs in this series can range from a compendium of techniques in P&C insurance to detailed notes on one or more of the methods for predictive modeling of individual claims. The authors may discuss one or a small number of methods in great detail or provide a survey of the various methods of predicting individual claims, elucidating the pros and cons of each method and connections between them.
Some examples of specific questions these monographs may address include:
- Can stochastic models leveraging more detailed information on individual claims outperform current traditional methods that only utilize aggregate data?
- Are there readily available variables external to a typical insurance company that help explain the amount of future loss to be paid?
- What are some useful applications of the aforementioned models? Can these models be incorporated into a pricing model as a more accurate target variable? How best to handle IBNR?
All monographs are expected to either be accompanied by tools or code that allow the techniques discussed to be implemented, or include links to open source software and code for this purpose.
Topics noted in this call may also be of interest to the CAS Syllabus Committee. The Monograph Editorial Board especially welcomes proposals that enrich material currently used to train P&C actuaries. Submissions that are highly readable and structurally amenable to having questions set from them are preferred. Authors are encouraged, but not required, to include examples and exercises that help teach the concepts being explained.
Authors must submit their work in accordance with the Guidelines for Submission of Monographs. Monograph submissions will be subject to peer review prior to final acceptance. Monograph authors whose submissions are accepted within the defined timeline may be invited to present their work at a related CAS seminar or meeting.
For more information on submission guidelines and timeline, visit http://bit.ly/CASMono1_18. Any questions on this call may be addressed to Donna Royston at droyston@casact.org.
